Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1002.219990 1146.442380 1311.577859 1516.309817 1765.637282 2062.446797 2.447126e+03
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 783.831703 960.570849 1183.010675 1489.518737 1910.789580 2485.095801 3.356508e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 694.878195 887.854161 1145.358243 1525.197493 2091.699484 2942.302676 4.397387e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 638.084264 844.450258 1133.938182 1587.373360 2316.000245 3515.469190 5.830870e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 587.340051 799.414954 1109.184774 1619.169759 2492.692226 4053.425845 7.428423e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 538.099326 749.112832 1067.628842 1614.157648 2602.641982 4501.163981 9.062684e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 505.861255 719.673700 1052.867939 1648.449851 2786.734760 5144.860740 1.150753e+04
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 460.539084 664.901443 990.382583 1588.939123 2778.540316 5382.985648 1.306221e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 423.387934 619.402478 937.803003 1538.778387 2777.523087 5636.419006 1.484241e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 390.183570 577.320648 886.498911 1483.430969 2754.094668 5829.687488 1.658732e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 380.605722 573.037727 899.422104 1552.368808 3015.672964 6845.919034 2.230257e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 367.091712 560.806794 896.726072 1589.515184 3213.619666 7776.523045 2.890785e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 350.016047 541.814882 881.183512 1601.012595 3361.492712 8658.845773 3.693792e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 329.985082 516.211100 851.095018 1577.794078 3418.351948 9289.127600 4.491767e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 319.158907 505.936750 848.769294 1614.782653 3645.529881 10651.107369 6.179713e+04
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 312.464769 502.489473 859.168121 1682.306804 3980.021122 12670.004668 9.315952e+04
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 302.722791 492.601899 855.659135 1716.538959 4228.118927 14536.485864 1.352809e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 289.940803 476.070146 837.041149 1711.154785 4351.782914 15936.997680 1.834830e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 282.004210 468.135174 835.418821 1748.205698 4629.079720 18411.971299 2.890626e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 265.938297 443.533517 796.586703 1683.908078 4538.676870 18740.281500 3.433747e+05
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 251.915527 422.131667 763.066332 1629.757265 4473.547642 19208.326961 4.182528e+05
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 238.424802 401.074396 728.872418 1570.059173 4375.769775 19423.165105 4.945570e+05
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 236.349725 402.344185 743.327322 1644.424383 4809.842534 23809.431460 1.096676e+06